America's economic policymakers are flying blind with outdated instruments. While the Federal Reserve makes important decisions based partially on inflation data, the metrics utilized are plagued by methodological flaws that distort our understanding of the true cost...
The 2025 Pivot: What Actually Changed The Federal Reserve's defining move in 2025 came in three installments: back-to-back 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December that brought the federal funds rate down to 3.50–3.75%—its lowest level since 2022. After...
On October 29, the Federal Reserve delivered its second 25-basis-point cut since September, lowering the federal funds rate target to 3.75%–4.00%. Moreover, the Fed announced it will halt balance-sheet reduction on December 1, a move that signals a formal pause in...
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic spent much of the post-pandemic period supporting accommodative monetary policies to aid economic recovery. But persistent inflation, lingering tariff effects, and structural shifts in the labor market have prompted a notable turn:...
The U.S. economy is walking a tightrope. A fragile balance lies beneath the surface of robust labor market performance and sustained consumer spending, where persistent inflation, frothy asset markets, a growing budget deficit, and looming uncertainties could ignite a...
In a surprising move last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, citing unconvincing and vague concerns about labor market cracks as the primary rationale. As I discussed in my recent MNI Podcast episode, FedSpeak: 50bp Not New Easing...
Monetary policy isn’t just about interest rates but the delicate dance of expectations and reality. In my recent op-ed for The Hill, I delve into how Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s messaging creates paradoxical outcomes that influence everything from inflation...
In just one week, the U.S. banking sector has been shaken by two of the largest failures in its history. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on March 10, followed closely by the closure of Signature Bank on March 12, has sent shockwaves through financial...
The Federal Reserve has finally begun its long-awaited tightening cycle, raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in March—the first increase since 2018. This move comes as inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, surged...
Under Chair Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve continues to reassure markets and the public that the current inflationary pressures are "transitory." This conveniently allows the Central Bank to keep interest rates low to ensure the economy is well out of the canyon...
As we move further into 2021, the economy is rebounding from the devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and unprecedented monetary policy actions have fueled a recovery that, on the surface, looks robust. Yet, beneath...
As the world grapples with the rapidly escalating COVID outbreak, an unprecedented challenge is unfolding—not just in public health, but in the global economy. Governments and businesses alike are facing questions that will define the economic and financial landscape...